Saturday, August 29, 2009

First Deflation Then Inflation

I guess I thought I would add my thoughts in the inflation/deflation debate. While I see the looming problem of printing to much money will lead to inflation, I believe that currently what is a driving force currently is a massive output gap.

There is overcapacity in auto manufacturing, steel mills, retail space, the list goes on and on. This is clearly a deflationary force. Nothing governments have done which is mostly financial manuvering (except Cash for Clunkers) has increased industrial production to reduce the overcapacity. So I see deflation now and likely inflation later.

No comments: